Traveler Tribes 2033 - Looking Back on Our Predictions for the Future

Traveler Tribes 2033 - Looking back on our predictions for the future

With the launch of Traveler Tribes 2033 we have been surveying how travelers will evolve over the coming years. Examining forces of change, alongside emerging traveler traits, behaviors, and preferences, we are working to understand what travelers will want a decade from now.

For us at Amadeus, the traveler has always been paramount. This is a long-term project, with previous Traveler Tribes report releases in 2007 (exploring the sector in 2020) and 2015 (making predictions for 2030). Each is a fascinating time capsule, revealing how the future looked from vantage points in the past.

Today, I would like to look back and see how our predictions have fared – what did we get right and what did we get wrong?

In general, our research has been largely accurate. Travel has continued to grow as a percentage of the global economy, with pre-pandemic visitor numbers higher even than the ambitious predictions made in 2007. In previous Traveler Tribes reports, we identified key technologies that have become fundamental drivers of transformation, from electronic traveler identification, biometrics, ‘super apps,’ social media and smart technologies, all of which are now part of our everyday lives.

Sustainability has also increased in importance, as predicted, as a key consideration for many travelers, noted in both the 2007 and 2015 reports.

Let us dive a little deeper.

Traveler Tribes 2020 (2007)

Conceptualized in 2007 (evolved in 2020), the first report in the series highlighted four Traveler Tribes. While there was a psychographic element to each of them, they were also heavily influenced by demographics. For example, Active Seniors identified a more affluent, older traveler: one open to exploring the world; while Cosmopolitan Commuters were identified as more likely to split their time between two locations for work and home life.

In the years that followed, we have seen travelers falling clearly within one of these groups. Mature travelers are now a key component of the visitor mix for many destinations, while long distance commuting is increasingly common in the new way of working.

Traveler Tribes 2020 explored the “humanization of technology,” a trend which anticipated the creation of communication systems designed to enable the delivery of highly personalized, streamlined, and flexible journeys. Traveler Tribes 2020 posited this would be based on the creation of digital personal identities, as well as easily accessible, up-to-date information about the traveler.

Published the year the first iPhone was released; these predictions were remarkably on point.

In terms of aviation, we suggested in 2007 that low-cost carriers would “redraw the air travel landscape,” opening new possibilities to budget-conscious travelers while also increasing demand for regional airports. This has clearly been the case, with Europe now served by many cost-efficient carriers ferrying travelers internationally for short breaks or business meetings.

However, the anticipated role of larger aircraft, including the Airbus A380 has now ceased production, and, except from the Middle East, is no longer in use..

Finally, Traveler Tribes 2020 spotlighted a ‘digital concierge,’ which “through the integration of advanced information systems” would allow travelers to be offered a single point of contact for any travel-related question relating to any part of their journey.

Was this perhaps an early reference to ChatGPT and other artificial intelligence-based chatbots?

Traveler Tribes 2030 (2015)

Traveler Tribes 2030 delved further into the changing behaviors and attitudes of future travelers.

Highlighting the importance of emerging social media to inform traveler choices, it also explored the increasing focus on sustainability and ethical ways of living likely to impact traveler behavior.

For Traveler Tribes expected to exist by 2030, one seems to have appeared early. Social Capital Seekers are those who understand that to be well-travelled is an enviable personal quality and seek to “structure their adventures with the fact of their being watched by online audiences ever present in their mind.” – Such traits in travel have been some of the most defining in recent years.

Ethical Travelers, those who allow their conscience to be their guide when organizing and undertaking their travel, are a group that has also clearly emerged. Travelers making concessions to environmental concerns and who let their ideology shape their choices, can also be expected to continue to increase in number in the coming years.

Specific predictions, including the arrival of civilian space travel and adoption of 5G technology, have also been proved correct, while cost parity for aviation biofuels and electric cars composing 30 percent of new vehicle sales remain works in progress.

Looking ahead

Of course, seeking to understand the future is far from easy. There was no prediction remotely resembling the COVID-19 pandemic which has had more impact on the global travel sector than any other factor in recent years. However, the increasing speed of technological change has been a reliable constant.

But that is not to say Traveler Tribes reports are not a valuable resource.

Only through seeking to understand the future can we begin to develop the tools, solutions and platforms needed to meet the ever-changing needs of travelers. We look forward to working with our partners as we continue to work to redefine our industry in the coming years.

Download our latest Traveler Tribes 2033 report here.

Neil Rogan