Skift Take
You'd think a shrinking supply of short-term rentals would be a big boost to hotels. But it's not at all clear how it will play out, and some will benefit more than others.
New York City's short-term rental regulations could slash up to 70% of Airbnb's 23,000 active listings in the city after September 5. Experts are divided on how the move might affect hotels, and their forecasts are foggy. Yet the analyses reveal interesting details about this critical lodging market regardless.
Key points:
If supply of the city's short-term rentals truly gets throttled, hotels would gain pricing power on peak demand days, such as during September's U.S. Tennis Open in Queens, October's Comic Con gathering, and November's city-wide marathon. Already, New York City hotel searches over the Christmas holiday (December 15 - January 2) are up 11% year over year, with hotel prices up about 5% on average, on price-comparison site Kayak. However, some analysts don't expect any meaningful effect, believing this is too small of an inventory change in too big of a market and that enforcement will be difficult. If there is an effect, some hotels might benefit more than others. For example, a potential winner would be hotels that cater to leisure travelers, especially families, groups, and youth travel for student or sports events. These properties have customer bases that overlap most closely with Airbnb's. The new rules forbid all reservation sites and apps from processing payments for unregistered short-term rental listings, not just Airbnb. But Airbnb has the most share in New York City and has received the most criticism for not policing its listings. Why Some Hotels May GainSo