Skift Take

The market is skeptical that Choice's hostile takeover bid for Wyndham will be successful. The Skift Travel 200 sheds light on the hotel sector and the thinking behind this offer.

Choice Hotels dropped a bombshell earlier this week when it went public with a hostile takeover bid for Wyndham Hotels & Resorts. Clearly Choice likes the deal while Wyndham thinks it can do better on its own (or with someone else).

What does the market think? We can assess the current consensus with some back-of-the-envelope math and by using the Skift Travel 200 stock index.

What Are the Odds Choice-Wyndham Will Happen?

Even when both sides are gung-ho to get a deal done, large mergers are rarely a slam dunk. There are pesky issues of regulatory and shareholder approval that can kill them. Add in a hostile management team and a Choice-Wyndham deal looks like an uphill battle.

Skift Research calculates that the stock market assi